0x86ce1aa792d2dd668bffc04d30c638573b980026
0x86ce1aa792d2dd668bffc04d30c638573b980026
- Realised P&L
- $-1.06
- Volume
- $270.86
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $5.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%? · No | 0.440 | 0.345 | $1.57 | −$0.43 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.340 | $1.36 | +$0.36 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.235 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.200 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $186 in September? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.455 | $0.70 | −$0.30 |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.569 | 0.196 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.009 | $0.07 | −$1.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
- +$6.63at 0.237Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 02:43 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 18:17 | Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.5689997553 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 09:20 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 09:19 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $186 in September? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 01:17 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 14:47 | Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 06:42 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 22:19 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 12:52 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999328 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 01:21 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 13:59 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 05:56 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999868 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 21:53 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 21:49 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 13:00 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |