0x86bbbdb1a4daa727205d0c119d3047061f1e4f4d
- Realised P&L
- $0.54
- Volume
- $171.28
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $12.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? · No | 0.540 | 0.880 | $3.26 | +$1.26 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.670 | 1.000 | $2.98 | +$0.98 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.952 | $2.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.715 | $1.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $167.50 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.280 | $1.08 | −$0.92 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.125 | $0.54 | −$1.46 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.510 | 0.125 | $0.49 | −$1.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.07at 0.253Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
- +$5.24at 0.282Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?
- +$3.66at 0.359Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?
- +$1.92at 0.462Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 04:22 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $167.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 20:22 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 07:12 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 20:54 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 03:57 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 04:50 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999868 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 19:43 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August? | BUY | 0.4599999034 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 11:43 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 01:40 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4599999034 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 17:15 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 07:06 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 06:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6699999163 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 22:08 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 14:05 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 23:17 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |