martenlill7954
0x86ae9bd694826ea575cecb5931cf913c276ca071
- Realised P&L
- $-876.09
- Volume
- $11.1k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $156.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.952 | 0.972 | $80.73 | +$1.66 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.959 | 0.950 | $50.33 | −$0.48 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.985 | 0.980 | $25.68 | −$0.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$990.00at 0.450Yankees vs. Dodgers
- +$792.00at 0.340Phillies vs. White Sox
- +$400.00at 0.500Solana Up or Down on August 22?
- +$0.92at 0.976Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
- +$0.92at 0.978Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-18 11:51 | Cardinals vs. Marlins | BUY | 0.55 | $600.05 |
| 08-04 12:52 | Cardinals vs. Dodgers | BUY | 0.63 | $711.90 |
| 07-21 10:26 | Padres vs. Marlins | BUY | 0.55 | $700.15 |
| 05-21 10:48 | Reds vs. Pirates | BUY | 0.54 | $500.04 |
| 05-14 06:07 | Oilers vs. Golden Knights | BUY | 0.53 | $550.14 |