0x867a04c8a1e572f3e2ed5b2b9b90f7969afc16fc
- Realised P&L
- $-57.17
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $343.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · No | 0.877 | 0.885 | $100.86 | +$0.88 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No | 0.721 | 0.805 | $53.88 | +$5.63 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · No | 0.824 | 0.885 | $47.07 | +$3.23 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? · No | 0.760 | 0.815 | $42.89 | +$2.89 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.485 | $40.41 | +$0.42 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.540 | 0.640 | $34.37 | +$5.37 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 22? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.435 | $24.16 | −$15.83 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · No | 0.563 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.18at 0.510Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
- +$19.66at 0.620Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?
- +$15.00at 0.774US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?
- +$13.58at 0.530Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?
- +$9.31at 0.580Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in September 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 10:07 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | SELL | 0.78 | $61.18 |
| 09-19 12:21 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | SELL | 0.34 | $36.75 |
| 09-19 08:28 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.37 | $40.00 |
| 09-17 18:42 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 22? | BUY | 0.72 | $40.00 |
| 09-17 14:35 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.51 | $40.00 |
| 09-17 14:29 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | SELL | 0.9 | $46.15 |
| 09-17 10:48 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.76 | $40.00 |
| 09-16 22:51 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | SELL | 0.85 | $45.33 |
| 09-16 17:03 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? | SELL | 0.9248054565 | $59.66 |
| 09-16 14:00 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $40.00 |
| 09-16 09:49 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $5.60 |
| 09-15 03:17 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $29.00 |
| 09-14 19:14 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $40.00 |
| 09-14 19:06 | Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $46.98 |
| 09-14 15:09 | Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30? | SELL | 0.643 | $24.83 |