LordButcher
0x865d7db4a174367ab75a9b8f5d82a515eee816bd
- Realised P&L
- $28.98
- Volume
- $419.6k
- Markets traded
- 703
- Open portfolio
- $867.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded703
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.695 | 0.835 | $334.00 | +$56.00 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.945 | $189.00 | +$19.00 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in September? · No | 0.850 | 0.939 | $187.80 | +$17.80 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in September? · No | 0.776 | 0.865 | $154.86 | +$15.86 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.643 | 0.004 | $1.75 | −$319.80 |
| Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.00 |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1? · Yes | 0.705 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$310.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$685.15at 0.009S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 16?
- +$626.12at 0.803Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
- +$605.45at 0.040SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?
- +$586.00at 0.073US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
- +$459.01at 0.366US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 22:25 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.39 | $78.00 |
| 08-30 22:24 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.38 | $76.00 |
| 06-15 22:19 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? | BUY | 0.94 | $47.00 |
| 06-15 21:35 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? | BUY | 0.94 | $47.00 |
| 06-15 21:32 | Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 06-15 21:14 | Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.6872181243 | $163.04 |
| 06-15 20:59 | Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? | SELL | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 06-15 20:37 | Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.54 | $21.60 |
| 06-15 19:54 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15? | BUY | 0.08 | $4.00 |
| 06-09 19:44 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? | BUY | 0.77 | $154.00 |
| 06-07 22:02 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? | BUY | 0.38 | $7.60 |
| 05-30 09:43 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.60 |
| 05-05 19:41 | Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 5? | BUY | 0.76 | $57.00 |
| 05-03 20:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.21 | $13.25 |
| 05-03 20:39 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $36.00 |