PolyBot

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Traders

Azrarn

0x863176c50b2039c67811cdf0a28da82c854f9a73

Realised P&L
$-134.3k
Volume
$4.94M
Markets traded
229
Open portfolio
$23.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded229
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration53.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No0.6910.935$12.8k+$3.3k
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4070.315$9.9k$2.9k
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7290.085$528.64$4.0k
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5980.045$514.53$6.2k
Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30? · Yes0.1810.000$0.00$234.79
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? · Yes0.1060.000$0.00$939.31
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.3960.000$0.00$930.23
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · No0.6050.000$0.00$24.2k
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31? · Yes0.1740.000$0.00$394.79
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? · Yes0.5190.000$0.00$525.02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No0.5690.000$0.00$18.5k
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.5250.000$0.00$2.0k
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30? · Yes0.3460.000$0.00$1.2k
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30? · Yes0.1840.000$0.00$678.53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · No0.7420.000$0.00$12.1k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-14 22:00Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?SELL0.06$0.39
09-03 21:13Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?SELL0.1$46.01
06-27 22:16Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?SELL0.05$0.33
05-28 20:38Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?SELL0.04$65.42
05-23 12:48Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?SELL0.05$23.21
05-23 12:47Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?SELL0.18$18.15
05-20 20:35Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?SELL0.06$159.83
05-17 18:24Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?SELL0.07$200.78
05-10 20:40Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?SELL0.09$240.57
05-09 06:37Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?SELL0.08$16.56
05-09 06:22Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?SELL0.1$168.75
05-08 19:25Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?BUY0.7369999998$467.00
05-08 19:23Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL0.89$4.1k
05-08 19:23Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?BUY0.7589999998$181.00
05-08 19:22Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?BUY0.7607950931$133.96