Daneurttgt
0x861eb8b9cc4cbe0c19e506a6d3cbf054aeef8a4f
- Realised P&L
- $-118.52
- Volume
- $15.5k
- Markets traded
- 113
- Open portfolio
- $49.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded113
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.630 | 0.715 | $48.31 | +$5.74 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.019 | $0.60 | −$3.40 |
| StripChain FDV above $20M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.315 | $0.38 | −$0.62 |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.75 |
| France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5 · Over | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.74at 0.857Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
- +$17.44at 0.810Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$12.30at 0.767Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$11.48at 0.788Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$11.17at 0.888Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 15:42 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.629999996 | $42.57 |
| 10-19 15:41 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.757 | $43.70 |
| 10-06 11:55 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8399999979 | $48.50 |
| 10-03 10:05 | Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5 | $51.31 |
| 09-24 09:50 | Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5951079668 | $60.07 |
| 09-24 09:49 | Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5899997404 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 13:51 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.161 | $1.13 |
| 09-21 13:29 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.1419999903 | $1.00 |
| 08-29 08:07 | Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31? | SELL | 0.9628387982 | $63.13 |
| 08-17 11:23 | Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31? | BUY | 0.8799999938 | $56.71 |
| 08-17 11:23 | Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31? | BUY | 0.8799995072 | $1.00 |
| 08-11 09:59 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $57.00 |
| 08-08 20:59 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.9909999985 | $57.00 |
| 08-07 12:34 | StripChain FDV above $20M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8299992198 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 09:45 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.9939999892 | $57.00 |