0x861b9c0a4a6daa4427fa68d9050575f2b6ea6b90
0x861b9c0a4a6daa4427fa68d9050575f2b6ea6b90
- Realised P&L
- $2.29
- Volume
- $265.69
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $8.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.950 | $3.45 | +$1.16 |
| Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.825 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $204 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.410 | 0.385 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.560 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.420 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.390 | $0.87 | −$0.13 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.155 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.80at 0.258Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $355 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$4.19at 0.359Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on August 17?
- +$4.19at 0.359SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6?
- +$3.51at 0.227Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in September?
- +$3.04at 0.430US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 22:25 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $204 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:17 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 02:49 | Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 06:46 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:41 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:25 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 00:59 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $66 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:36 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:02 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 04:49 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:47 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:46 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 12:16 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 04:14 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 6? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:41 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 5? | BUY | 0.726999904 | $1.00 |