0x85e33939a576403d4b21f63b169843b2b6ddaaa2
0x85e33939a576403d4b21f63b169843b2b6ddaaa2
- Realised P&L
- $51.30
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $108.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.355 | $59.17 | +$4.17 |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? · No | 0.740 | 0.976 | $25.05 | +$6.05 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.972 | $11.30 | +$1.30 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.043 | $8.76 | −$46.24 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.939 | $2.29 | +$0.29 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.019 | $0.73 | −$2.27 |
| Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.390 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.007 | $0.38 | −$3.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.65at 0.062Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$20.54at 0.495Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?
- +$10.72at 0.650Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
- +$4.39at 0.732Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$2.97at 0.770Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-05 11:56 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2699999896 | $15.00 |
| 06-05 11:56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3299999886 | $15.00 |
| 06-05 11:55 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2699999953 | $40.00 |
| 06-05 11:55 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.329999995 | $40.00 |
| 05-24 20:28 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $3.00 |
| 05-24 20:28 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.50 |
| 05-19 18:38 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8599999742 | $10.00 |
| 05-19 18:34 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.9399997556 | $2.00 |
| 05-18 20:57 | Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 05-18 20:54 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | BUY | 0.08 | $4.00 |
| 05-18 20:54 | Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 05-18 20:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.9459994078 | $1.00 |
| 05-17 20:58 | Will Dua Lipa and Callum Turner get married by December 31? | BUY | 0.4038619317 | $2.00 |
| 05-17 20:54 | Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | BUY | 0.8899999555 | $2.00 |
| 05-17 20:54 | Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | BUY | 0.8299997053 | $2.00 |