0x85c9419A5d7767DDe3321a1FfAA4BEc3A4108BeA-1734413804046
0x85c9419a5d7767dde3321a1ffaa4bec3a4108bea
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $2.17M
- Markets traded
- 1,345
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,345
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.855 | $2.1k | +$87.50 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in October? · No | 0.420 | 0.430 | $860.00 | +$20.00 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.140 | $169.47 | −$302.18 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in October? · No | 0.420 | 0.435 | $21.75 | +$0.75 |
| WTT - Men's Singles: Yun-Ju Lin vs Sora Matsushima · Lin | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.40 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$67.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August? · No | 0.389 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$701.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August? · No | 0.574 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in August? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$305.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in August? · No | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.00 |
| WTT - Men's Singles: China vs France · France | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September? · No | 0.538 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$806.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.7kat 0.575US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
- +$2.8kat 0.411Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$2.7kat 0.698Maduro out by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.736Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?
- +$1.8kat 0.775US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 14:53 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in October? | BUY | 0.42 | $21.00 |
| 09-29 14:11 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September? | SELL | 0.7 | $70.00 |
| 09-29 14:10 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September? | SELL | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 09-25 16:28 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September? | BUY | 0.49 | $49.00 |
| 09-25 16:28 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September? | BUY | 0.63 | $63.00 |
| 09-25 16:20 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September? | SELL | 0.472 | $472.00 |
| 09-25 16:18 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September? | SELL | 0.86 | $258.00 |
| 09-22 05:45 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September? | BUY | 0.58 | $208.80 |
| 09-22 01:06 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September? | BUY | 0.51 | $51.00 |
| 09-22 01:05 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September? | BUY | 0.51 | $204.00 |
| 09-21 01:11 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September? | SELL | 0.95 | $588.65 |
| 09-08 14:54 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.962 | $1.9k |
| 09-08 14:53 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September? | BUY | 0.5465206652 | $546.52 |
| 09-08 14:52 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September? | BUY | 0.66 | $660.00 |
| 09-02 01:28 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $75.00 |