0x8589d0073801c343070cc36eb1e360270a0a3452
0x8589d0073801c343070cc36eb1e360270a0a3452
- Realised P&L
- $407.68
- Volume
- $20.0k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $360.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.893 | 0.984 | $329.22 | +$30.22 |
| Major CEX insolvent in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.038 | $29.62 | −$70.41 |
| Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.954 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? · No | 0.127 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.95 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.95 |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-29? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.645 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? · No | 0.363 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.75 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? · No | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.95 |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-29? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$907.69at 0.491Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$146.04at 0.605Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$72.77at 0.590US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$4.77at 0.860US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$4.63at 0.540Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 00:43 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.061 | $29.61 |
| 04-17 16:05 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.992 | $179.56 |
| 04-16 05:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.99 | $179.20 |
| 04-08 11:54 | Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.3631169581 | $49.75 |
| 04-08 11:54 | Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.1299999895 | $9.95 |
| 04-02 06:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? | BUY | 0.0339999968 | $8.57 |
| 04-02 06:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? | BUY | 0.11899999 | $8.69 |
| 04-02 06:49 | Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 04-01 03:48 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $199.00 |
| 03-21 01:21 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999951 | $100.00 |
| 03-19 07:33 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | SELL | 0.74 | $49.34 |
| 03-19 07:32 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | SELL | 0.74 | $49.33 |
| 03-11 07:47 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | BUY | 0.75 | $50.00 |
| 03-11 07:45 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | BUY | 0.7499999887 | $50.00 |
| 03-10 07:26 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1029999982 | $50.00 |