web3-SocialValue
0x8568f55849e70fddffa56002061b3c76965d7ac8
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $26.7k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $29.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.913 | 0.962 | $19.23 | +$0.97 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.477 | 0.157 | $5.39 | −$11.01 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.182 | 0.065 | $5.36 | −$9.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$37.39at 0.745US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$25.56at 0.171China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- +$2.85at 0.743Will Trump visit China by May 31?
- +$2.47at 0.990Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?
- +$2.41at 0.290Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-16 19:21 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.3101042 | $48.51 |
| 04-16 19:20 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $9.58 |
| 04-16 19:19 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1253271028 | $10.33 |
| 04-16 19:19 | Iran leadership change by May 31? | SELL | 0.12 | $35.80 |
| 04-16 19:19 | Iran leadership change by June 30? | SELL | 0.16 | $25.61 |
| 04-16 19:18 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.06 | $4.29 |
| 04-16 19:18 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $10.80 |
| 04-16 19:18 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL | 0.11 | $11.38 |
| 04-13 07:10 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.992 | $33.78 |
| 04-12 14:51 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | SELL | 0.027 | $3.86 |
| 04-12 14:48 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.1999705941 | $29.92 |
| 04-12 09:05 | Iran leadership change by May 31? | BUY | 0.1899999678 | $3.90 |
| 04-12 09:04 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL | 0.09 | $3.89 |
| 04-09 05:00 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.4667375629 | $81.81 |
| 04-09 04:55 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.18205104 | $30.00 |