0x854e4d73287126Df3966b187d29dB7C4CD4Fb675-1767787438325
0x854e4d73287126df3966b187d29db7c4cd4fb675
- Realised P&L
- $4.3k
- Volume
- $271.0k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $6.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 · No | 0.711 | 0.920 | $5.9k | +$1.3k |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · No | 0.810 | 0.865 | $535.22 | +$34.03 |
| Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.006 | $54.06 | +$27.03 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.799 | 0.966 | $4.61 | +$0.80 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.647 | 0.135 | $0.16 | −$0.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.739US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.441Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$1.1kat 0.937Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
- +$795.45at 0.666Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
- +$723.38at 0.854Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 05:50 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | BUY | 0.81 | $501.19 |
| 09-22 18:11 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.2001818927 | $43.98 |
| 09-22 18:10 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.2064488 | $5.16 |
| 09-22 18:10 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.21225 | $6.37 |
| 09-22 18:10 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $12.54 |
| 09-22 18:10 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.1940497148 | $102.07 |
| 09-22 18:09 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.1921836977 | $165.28 |
| 09-22 18:09 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.221 | $11.05 |
| 09-22 18:08 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.21714487 | $434.29 |
| 09-22 18:08 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.222031225 | $355.25 |
| 09-22 18:07 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $37.50 |
| 09-22 18:07 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.216 | $32.40 |
| 09-22 18:06 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $33.00 |
| 09-22 18:06 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $33.00 |
| 09-22 18:06 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $33.00 |