0x854e4d73287126Df3966b187d29dB7C4CD4Fb675-1767787438325
0x854e4d73287126df3966b187d29db7c4cd4fb675
- Realised P&L
- $11.4k
- Volume
- $259.9k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $13.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.615 | 0.854 | $8.4k | +$2.3k |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 · No | 0.694 | 0.870 | $5.1k | +$1.0k |
| Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $4.50 | −$22.52 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.799 | 0.935 | $4.46 | +$0.65 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.647 | 0.145 | $0.18 | −$0.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.739US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.441Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$1.1kat 0.937Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
- +$795.45at 0.666Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
- +$723.38at 0.854Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 05:14 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8999999946 | $117.20 |
| 09-18 05:13 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $69.75 |
| 09-17 19:49 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8840831289 | $53.12 |
| 09-17 19:36 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $99.51 |
| 09-09 13:03 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | BUY | 0.8474847778 | $160.25 |
| 09-09 13:03 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $53.20 |
| 09-09 13:01 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | BUY | 0.8382300885 | $23.68 |
| 09-08 19:06 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $80.75 |
| 09-08 19:02 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | BUY | 0.8 | $171.40 |
| 09-08 19:01 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $120.65 |
| 09-08 18:29 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $50.35 |
| 09-08 18:27 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | BUY | 0.8093445257 | $197.56 |
| 09-08 18:26 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $197.60 |
| 09-07 20:01 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | BUY | 0.81 | $34.79 |
| 09-07 16:50 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | BUY | 0.8099999838 | $4.00 |