TheArchitect76
0x854dd4db9230143f19bccfd6850aacb6facbdeb0
- Realised P&L
- $-11.7k
- Volume
- $1.89M
- Markets traded
- 375
- Open portfolio
- $33.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded375
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.945 | $14.3k | +$4.3k |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.986 | $10.8k | +$1.9k |
| Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.077 | $8.4k | +$8.0k |
| Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.060 | $5.79 | −$52.11 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.586 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.3k |
| Will Bulgaria win on 2026-09-26? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$679.99 |
| Slovenia vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 · Over | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$960.00 |
| Will Cyprus win on 2026-10-02? · No | 0.437 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| Germany vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$640.00 |
| Israel vs. Kosovo: O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$620.00 |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? · No | 0.524 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$627.10 |
| Gibraltar vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Andrews Tetteh: Anytime Goalscorer · Yes | 0.235 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.5kat 0.098Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?
- +$6.4kat 0.150Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$5.6kat 0.017Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance
- +$4.8kat 0.576Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?
- +$3.7kat 0.618Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 11:56 | Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? | BUY | 0.5207171315 | $130.70 |
| 10-13 11:42 | Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? | BUY | 0.47 | $70.50 |
| 10-06 14:25 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.005 | $40.71 |
| 10-03 17:55 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.586 | $4.1k |
| 10-02 16:25 | Will Cyprus win on 2026-10-02? | BUY | 0.31 | $310.00 |
| 10-02 16:09 | Will Cyprus win on 2026-10-02? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.0k |
| 09-27 20:08 | Germany vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.32 | $54.36 |
| 09-27 18:30 | Andrews Tetteh: Anytime Goalscorer | BUY | 0.2315625 | $7.41 |
| 09-26 22:35 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.004 | $50.74 |
| 09-26 16:48 | Will Bulgaria win on 2026-09-26? | BUY | 0.34 | $157.51 |
| 09-24 16:32 | Will Andorra win on 2026-09-24? | BUY | 0.42 | $87.40 |
| 09-24 16:20 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.001 | $18.54 |
| 08-30 16:51 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.52 | $3.1k |
| 08-30 13:53 | Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-08-30? | BUY | 0.2941805 | $294.18 |
| 07-30 12:40 | Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.34 | $129.20 |