0x84f9c0b772191387007b996b6addf3108d092673
- Realised P&L
- $57.05
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $40.56
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.905 | $11.69 | +$1.74 |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.605 | $9.87 | −$0.08 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.415 | $7.00 | −$2.95 |
| Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.450 | $5.36 | +$0.36 |
| Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.445 | $4.54 | −$0.46 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.040 | $1.46 | −$8.54 |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.095 | $0.64 | −$4.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.44at 0.270Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
- +$21.59at 0.569Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?
- +$18.11at 0.268Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$14.28at 0.781Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?
- +$13.67at 0.397Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 09:18 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $11.22 |
| 08-14 09:18 | Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $10.85 |
| 08-14 09:17 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.822 | $15.52 |
| 08-14 09:16 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $15.65 |
| 08-13 09:00 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.82 | $23.99 |
| 08-13 08:59 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.63 | $39.12 |
| 08-07 13:36 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF? | BUY | 0.4199999832 | $5.00 |
| 08-07 13:35 | Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | BUY | 0.4899999804 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 08:47 | Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $10.00 |
| 06-28 11:51 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.7399999674 | $5.00 |
| 06-20 15:06 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 06-20 15:05 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.6599999604 | $5.00 |
| 06-20 15:05 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.5699999555 | $5.00 |
| 06-20 15:04 | Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |
| 06-20 15:03 | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |