0x84EA96812cD284db80D5cbf2C2905fc020Ee67c2-1777914705920
0x84ea96812cd284db80d5cbf2c2905fc020ee67c2
- Realised P&L
- $-153.83
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $520.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.435 | $520.21 | −$89.79 |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.399 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$208.46 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · Yes | 0.382 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.02at 0.164Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$45.39at 0.816Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$21.19at 0.195Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?
- +$5.79at 0.467Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 20:20 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.45 | $8.46 |
| 07-09 11:26 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3899999959 | $50.00 |
| 07-05 21:22 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.00 |
| 07-05 21:22 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 07-05 21:22 | Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw? | BUY | 0.4299999871 | $5.00 |
| 07-04 11:16 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4 | $150.00 |
| 06-29 16:34 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.4899999991 | $100.00 |
| 06-29 16:32 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 16:31 | Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 16:31 | Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 06-06 11:31 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.5184394962 | $90.00 |
| 06-03 09:38 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 06-02 16:37 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? | SELL | 0.018 | $0.11 |
| 06-02 12:28 | Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 06-02 11:20 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |