gardens
0x84c59284e81ac02fdd21ea179fa4450016e0413b
- Realised P&L
- $8.5k
- Volume
- $1.04M
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $17.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.050 | $17.00 | −$102.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.5kat 0.340Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
- +$3.2kat 0.339Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$2.1kat 0.394Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
- +$1.3kat 0.380OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
- +$243.00at 0.340Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-03 07:30 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $30.10 |
| 03-09 02:40 | Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.368 | $7.36 |
| 03-06 01:52 | Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | SELL | 0.42 | $12.1k |
| 03-06 01:51 | Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | SELL | 0.42 | $10.6k |
| 03-05 02:21 | Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.35 | $8.5k |
| 03-04 08:33 | Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.34 | $8.2k |
| 03-04 07:55 | Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.34 | $7.8k |
| 03-03 02:20 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.749 | $15.5k |
| 03-02 07:40 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.748 | $15.4k |
| 12-19 06:12 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $23.10 |
| 11-25 08:08 | Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | SELL | 0.3660035211 | $2.6k |
| 11-25 07:58 | Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | SELL | 0.353 | $2.0k |
| 11-21 08:38 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | BUY | 0.34 | $2.2k |
| 11-21 08:37 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | BUY | 0.34 | $2.2k |
| 10-09 06:56 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-10-09? | BUY | 0.5199999986 | $15.00 |