PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

gardens

0x84c59284e81ac02fdd21ea179fa4450016e0413b

Realised P&L
$8.5k
Volume
$1.04M
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$17.00

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration39.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample16 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · Yes0.3500.050$17.00$102.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-03 07:30Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?SELL0.86$30.10
03-09 02:40Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?SELL0.368$7.36
03-06 01:52Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?SELL0.42$12.1k
03-06 01:51Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?SELL0.42$10.6k
03-05 02:21Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.35$8.5k
03-04 08:33Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.34$8.2k
03-04 07:55Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.34$7.8k
03-03 02:20Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.749$15.5k
03-02 07:40Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.748$15.4k
12-19 06:12Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?BUY0.66$23.10
11-25 08:08Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?SELL0.3660035211$2.6k
11-25 07:58Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?SELL0.353$2.0k
11-21 08:38Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?BUY0.34$2.2k
11-21 08:37Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?BUY0.34$2.2k
10-09 06:56Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-10-09?BUY0.5199999986$15.00