SupremeGlow
0x84bd63bd027660dbade1fe92e73b4cf571b12429
- Realised P&L
- $1.17
- Volume
- $317.37
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $6.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.484 | $5.38 | −$0.84 |
| Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.934 | 0.967 | $1.14 | +$0.04 |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.88 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.94at 0.973Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?
- +$1.20at 0.988Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?
- +$0.88at 0.920Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings?
- +$0.73at 0.650Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31?
- +$0.70at 0.930Maduro out by November 30, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-01 13:23 | Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | BUY | 0.9489999925 | $2.39 |
| 01-08 22:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | SELL | 0.88 | $3.93 |
| 01-05 12:36 | Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.25 |
| 12-08 09:06 | Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | BUY | 0.89 | $4.72 |
| 12-01 11:24 | Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings? | BUY | 0.92 | $10.12 |
| 11-23 17:52 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.984 | $5.90 |
| 11-07 12:36 | Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? | BUY | 0.988 | $98.80 |
| 11-05 09:32 | Maduro out by November 30, 2025? | BUY | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 10-29 16:11 | Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? | BUY | 0.973 | $106.06 |
| 10-27 17:44 | Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.77 |
| 10-26 10:40 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.984 | $4.92 |
| 10-23 18:51 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | BUY | 0.9199998106 | $1.36 |
| 10-21 18:56 | French election called by December 31? | SELL | 0.32 | $0.50 |
| 10-21 18:52 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.12 |
| 10-21 15:52 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9249999709 | $1.59 |