yeeyeeyee
0x8458e630809d94447f4e1ce244562a05afbe37c6
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $35.9k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $98.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.183 | 0.162 | $40.34 | −$5.37 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.085 | $25.63 | −$22.61 |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.014 | $12.17 | −$7.83 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.025 | $11.43 | −$16.57 |
| Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $7.50 | −$12.50 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.001 | $1.44 | −$68.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.920Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$305.31at 0.141Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?
- +$246.20at 0.190Will the Director of Secret Service be fired/resign?
- +$191.83at 0.326Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$157.33at 0.150Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 17:57 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.0104824216 | $20.00 |
| 09-29 21:41 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7? | BUY | 0.06 | $28.00 |
| 09-29 01:35 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.0515446078 | $50.00 |
| 09-26 13:40 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | SELL | 0.0347000538 | $43.89 |
| 09-25 17:10 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.183 | $45.72 |
| 09-25 17:07 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | SELL | 0.1023571429 | $14.33 |
| 09-21 05:51 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.0699999999 | $30.00 |
| 09-21 05:49 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.069 | $0.35 |
| 09-14 05:25 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.0637536037 | $48.00 |
| 07-28 06:01 | Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.004 | $20.00 |
| 07-28 05:52 | Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0229999989 | $20.00 |
| 05-10 04:52 | UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | SELL | 0.994 | $49.70 |
| 05-10 04:08 | UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.21 | $10.50 |
| 04-30 06:33 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.16 | $48.24 |
| 12-10 05:09 | Will Biden pardon Fauci? | SELL | 0.37 | $27.22 |