PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

cripes3

0x8454f39e7fa6957dfbf1ecc574820ada1c92331a

Realised P&L
$-117.2k
Volume
$23.17M
Markets traded
2,672
Open portfolio
$26.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded2,672
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration27.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.8450.601$3.0k$1.2k
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.5710.834$2.5k+$789.00
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · No0.6500.855$1.6k+$389.14
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? · $600.8960.446$1.6k$1.6k
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No0.5850.765$1.5k+$360.00
Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch · No0.9300.994$1.5k+$95.25
Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch · No0.9100.998$1.4k+$123.20
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? · No0.8900.915$1.4k+$37.50
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? · No0.8100.165$990.33$3.9k
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? · No0.7330.125$931.63$4.5k
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2380.105$915.51$1.2k
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No0.0410.399$798.00+$716.00
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027? · No0.5900.840$789.52+$234.98
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.8740.685$783.64$215.96
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No0.9490.825$660.00$99.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-09 05:23US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos AlcarazBUY0.42$840.00
09-08 23:35Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?BUY0.58$464.79
08-31 05:51UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?SELL0.8519740279$4.3k
08-31 05:48Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.84$8.4k
08-31 05:43Iran leadership change by December 31?SELL0.8267776516$10.4k
08-25 06:25Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?SELL0.995$4.2k
08-15 06:34Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?SELL0.15$289.74
08-10 07:00Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?SELL0.16$320.00
08-08 07:00Iran leadership change by December 31?BUY0.76$1.5k
08-08 06:30Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?SELL0.01019314$20.39
08-07 04:46Will "Tony" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.06$18.00
08-04 04:12Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?SELL0.0234055333$7.02
08-03 06:53Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $125 in August?SELL0.0400333333$12.01
07-25 23:28Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?SELL0.9148773278$933.43
07-18 07:24Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.73$2.2k