Happyup
0x843aed65b49dcb9dc3914be2d7c475abea3ec46e
- Realised P&L
- $-3.32
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $23.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? · Yes | 0.640 | 1.000 | $20.00 | +$7.20 |
| Will 1100 to 1149 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.031 | $3.10 | +$1.10 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 1? · Yes | 0.431 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.33 |
| Will 170 to 199 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? · Yes | 0.094 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.60 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 10? · Yes | 0.282 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.37 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 1? · Yes | 0.352 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.05 |
| Will 200 to 229 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.47 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 10? · Yes | 0.263 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.58 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 1? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.52at 0.317Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?
- +$6.00at 0.200Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
- +$1.63at 0.860Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC in January?
- +$0.90at 0.910Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
- +$0.75at 0.930Will there be 7-9 inches of snow in D.C. in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 04:43 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 10? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.91 |
| 04-10 04:42 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 10? | BUY | 0.0127695284 | $0.90 |
| 03-30 12:52 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 1? | BUY | 0.32 | $0.98 |
| 03-30 12:52 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 1? | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $0.98 |
| 03-30 12:51 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 1? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $0.98 |
| 03-16 13:16 | Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.60 |
| 03-16 13:16 | Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? | SELL | 0.015904 | $1.59 |
| 03-16 13:16 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 02-04 15:40 | Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? | BUY | 0.3173076758 | $10.00 |
| 02-04 15:35 | Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026? | SELL | 0.0039699983 | $0.46 |
| 02-03 14:44 | Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026? | BUY | 0.0171428488 | $2.00 |
| 01-28 16:15 | Will there be 7-9 inches of snow in D.C. in January? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 01-28 16:14 | Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC in January? | BUY | 0.86 | $10.00 |
| 01-16 03:23 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.47 | $4.70 |