HannahJones6515
0x843357236a47cd4ee7c36e6430393b04dc8e6e0f
- Realised P&L
- $-497.99
- Volume
- $160.4k
- Markets traded
- 173
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded173
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic | 0.600 | 0.936 | $613.41 | +$220.41 |
| Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.300 | 0.550 | $531.30 | +$241.50 |
| Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.075 | $34.73 | −$81.03 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · No | 0.490 | 1.000 | $9.00 | +$4.59 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.080 | $3.92 | −$13.72 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.045 | $1.00 | +$0.30 |
| Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? · Yes | 0.790 | 1.000 | $1.00 | +$0.21 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.015 | $0.31 | −$3.49 |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.261 | 0.078 | $0.16 | −$0.37 |
| Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$0.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$527.09at 0.130Legends Cricket League: Mumbai Spartans vs Konark Suryas Odisha - Completed match?
- +$472.75at 0.390Will Cristian Sanabria win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?
- +$443.30at 0.380Will Trump say "Sucker" or "Loser" this week? (April 19)
- +$364.29at 0.601Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$279.30at 0.360Will Trump say "Big" or "Biggest" or "Bigly" 10+ times during the announcement on Thursday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 03:45 | Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $142.45 |
| 04-21 03:43 | Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $709.94 |
| 04-21 03:19 | Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? | SELL | 0.27 | $21.06 |
| 04-13 04:58 | Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $47.52 |
| 04-13 02:50 | Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $929.88 |
| 04-13 01:43 | Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.89 | $946.07 |
| 04-12 23:34 | Will Trump say "Sucker" or "Loser" this week? (April 19) | BUY | 0.38 | $271.70 |
| 04-12 23:20 | Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $58.08 |
| 04-12 22:08 | Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.45% (HIGH) in April? | SELL | 0.803 | $562.10 |
| 04-12 21:02 | Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.5 | $3.50 |
| 04-12 20:28 | US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Modena FC 2018: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.47 | $585.15 |
| 04-12 20:27 | US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Modena FC 2018: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.47 | $304.09 |
| 04-12 08:34 | Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.57 | $5.70 |
| 04-12 08:30 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | SELL | 0.76 | $449.92 |
| 04-12 03:22 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | BUY | 0.76 | $449.92 |