dawnwolf
0x840fa3035290fd70cc9d5d6b2a3a5b7d0fffd346
- Realised P&L
- $-5.51
- Volume
- $12.3k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $34.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.665 | $13.55 | −$2.34 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.465 | $10.51 | −$1.24 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 16? · No | 0.910 | 0.871 | $10.10 | −$0.46 |
| Seoul Thunders vs. LG Sakers · LG Sakers | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.22at 0.622Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 10?
- +$8.15at 0.650San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- +$2.31at 0.490Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?
- +$2.07at 0.590Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 3?
- +$0.23at 0.995Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 00:57 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 10? | BUY | 0.6099999906 | $14.88 |
| 01-31 13:41 | Will Solana dip to $90 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.56 |
| 01-31 13:23 | Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.05 |
| 01-30 16:16 | Will Ethena hit $0.33 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.46 |
| 01-30 14:54 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.69 |
| 01-30 14:13 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $46.32 |
| 12-30 11:33 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.22 |
| 12-29 21:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.64 |
| 12-29 21:07 | Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $40.80 |
| 12-29 20:41 | Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.56 |
| 10-30 19:46 | Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.79 |
| 10-30 19:24 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.12 |
| 10-30 17:53 | Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.31 |
| 09-29 14:08 | Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.81 |
| 09-28 23:54 | Will Trump sue Powell by September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $10.05 |