PredictionOSINT
0x840b77843a5753678c8a6f38dc057e78a99ccbd3
- Realised P&L
- $-0.65
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $67.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.290 | 0.402 | $20.07 | +$5.58 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.161 | 0.160 | $14.36 | −$0.14 |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.051 | $10.10 | +$3.70 |
| Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? · No | 0.300 | 0.400 | $7.90 | +$1.98 |
| Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government? · Yes | 0.638 | 0.315 | $7.88 | −$8.07 |
| Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government? · Yes | 0.354 | 0.385 | $3.37 | +$0.27 |
| Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.325 | $3.25 | −$0.05 |
| Will Mariana Carvalho win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.005 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.80at 0.320Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
- +$7.34at 0.779US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$5.82at 0.800US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
- +$3.56at 0.636Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?
- +$2.20at 0.696Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 21:13 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | SELL | 0.31 | $0.62 |
| 09-03 21:34 | Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government? | BUY | 0.38 | $7.60 |
| 08-31 22:42 | Will Mariana Carvalho win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election? | BUY | 0.011 | $0.27 |
| 08-30 13:38 | Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.03 |
| 08-29 22:43 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.994 | $29.82 |
| 08-17 20:52 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.947 | $11.35 |
| 08-10 19:45 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.771 | $7.71 |
| 08-10 19:42 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.771 | $7.71 |
| 08-10 16:01 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.79 |
| 08-10 10:20 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.83 |
| 08-08 23:13 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | SELL | 0.61 | $1.22 |
| 08-04 23:16 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.2899999478 | $3.00 |
| 04-29 20:43 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.6899999917 | $5.00 |
| 04-27 22:33 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.69 |
| 04-27 22:31 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? | BUY | 0.59 | $2.88 |