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0x83741e1105434080431b598ed6b4e90d8bd99149
- Realised P&L
- $-7.6k
- Volume
- $1.78M
- Markets traded
- 680
- Open portfolio
- $118.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded680
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.6kat 0.070Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$5.4kat 0.081Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
- +$4.6kat 0.070US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
- +$4.4kat 0.149US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$4.1kat 0.028Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 17:35 | Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $32.74 |
| 10-05 17:35 | Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.33 |
| 10-05 17:35 | Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.946 | $25.54 |
| 10-05 17:35 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | SELL | 0.8864583333 | $42.55 |
| 10-05 17:35 | OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? | SELL | 0.125 | $6.88 |
| 10-05 17:35 | Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $53.12 |
| 10-05 17:35 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.4465989837 | $42.19 |
| 10-05 17:35 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.89 | $89.80 |
| 10-05 17:35 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | SELL | 0.7143906885 | $50.94 |
| 10-05 17:35 | Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? | SELL | 0.8496235139 | $154.36 |
| 10-05 17:35 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.39 |
| 10-05 17:35 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $190.00 |
| 10-05 17:35 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | SELL | 0.2415981735 | $105.82 |
| 10-05 17:35 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.994 | $326.03 |
| 10-05 17:35 | Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $27.22 |