Retired-Davis
0x8365a0c9908dca494abaf0b90584162b474ce9a6
- Realised P&L
- $-40.8k
- Volume
- $12.67M
- Markets traded
- 394
- Open portfolio
- $45.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded394
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$89.2kat 0.641Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?
- +$77.7kat 0.652Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$39.0kat 0.286Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?
- +$19.6kat 0.858Ethereum all time high by June 30?
- +$17.9kat 0.616Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 07:40 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.8k |
| 10-05 07:36 | Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027? | SELL | 0.9507887262 | $1.1k |
| 10-05 07:35 | Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $293.34 |
| 10-05 07:35 | Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? | SELL | 0.952163296 | $1.2k |
| 10-05 07:34 | Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027? | SELL | 0.9701841756 | $526.77 |
| 10-05 07:34 | Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027? | SELL | 0.9810046782 | $1.7k |
| 10-05 07:30 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $3.9k |
| 09-05 09:17 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.5209858745 | $107.33 |
| 09-05 09:17 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.5003779004 | $529.64 |
| 09-05 09:17 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.88 | $1.8k |
| 07-08 12:27 | Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.8952217184 | $394.88 |
| 07-08 12:24 | Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $404.32 |
| 07-08 12:24 | Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.8767659226 | $953.71 |
| 07-08 12:23 | Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $527.52 |
| 07-08 12:23 | Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.8790976086 | $715.73 |