0x8339d5633a375ac8c840c46a21b6d77de49bfd49
- Realised P&L
- $-13.7k
- Volume
- $757.6k
- Markets traded
- 5,555
- Open portfolio
- $215.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,555
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Up or Down on September 18? · Down | 0.514 | 0.810 | $151.03 | +$55.17 |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-16? · No | 0.560 | 0.585 | $20.27 | +$0.87 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? · No | 0.560 | 0.555 | $9.61 | −$0.09 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.445 | $9.53 | −$0.11 |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-16? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.415 | $8.89 | −$0.75 |
| Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.033 | $5.84 | −$2.84 |
| Will Gangwon FC win K-League? · No | 0.980 | 0.680 | $5.59 | −$2.46 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.018 | $1.40 | −$0.58 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.675 | $1.35 | +$0.29 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 18? · Up | 0.500 | 0.315 | $1.20 | −$0.71 |
| Ukraine coup attempt by December 31? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.065 | $0.78 | −$0.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.743Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
- +$2.2kat 0.327Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?
- +$2.2kat 0.328Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?
- +$2.0kat 0.111Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?
- +$1.8kat 0.117Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:17 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET | BUY | 0.3499999495 | $2.08 |
| 09-17 17:43 | Ethereum Up or Down on September 18? | BUY | 0.5141006586 | $95.86 |
| 09-17 16:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET | BUY | 0.7599999944 | $21.62 |
| 09-17 16:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 18? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 09-17 16:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET | BUY | 0.5499999738 | $1.05 |
| 09-17 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET | BUY | 0.4199999112 | $1.04 |
| 09-17 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 12PM ET | BUY | 0.4199999112 | $1.04 |
| 09-17 16:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 12PM ET | BUY | 0.4899998974 | $1.91 |
| 09-17 15:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.05 |
| 09-17 15:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET | BUY | 0.7799999945 | $19.97 |
| 09-17 15:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 11AM ET | BUY | 0.3799999397 | $1.89 |
| 09-17 14:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET | BUY | 0.4199999112 | $1.04 |
| 09-17 14:32 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 17, 10AM ET | BUY | 0.8699998313 | $1.96 |
| 09-17 14:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET | BUY | 0.2599999647 | $1.03 |
| 09-17 14:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 10AM ET | BUY | 0.5399998457 | $1.05 |