Busdriver23
0x8330fbb7e7cd79fe0852c413f35b7f104db2b88f
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $219.2k
- Markets traded
- 279
- Open portfolio
- $363.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded279
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$923.49at 0.240US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$921.12at 0.647Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 3 Winner
- +$792.92at 0.559Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
- +$764.52at 0.187Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year?
- +$690.76at 0.449Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-10 16:55 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.3699815746 | $500.00 |
| 03-01 18:53 | Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner | BUY | 0.2699999983 | $100.00 |
| 03-01 18:52 | Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner | BUY | 0.2899999915 | $15.00 |
| 02-21 19:15 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.3799999981 | $60.00 |
| 02-09 23:53 | Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million? | BUY | 0.3832923728 | $20.00 |
| 02-09 23:09 | Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | SELL | 0.0528978308 | $6.56 |
| 02-07 21:58 | Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? | BUY | 0.3399999912 | $20.00 |
| 02-01 15:22 | Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28? | BUY | 0.33 | $19.80 |
| 02-01 15:22 | Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28? | BUY | 0.32 | $12.80 |
| 01-31 18:33 | Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.0725693062 | $9.00 |
| 01-31 12:01 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.996 | $275.15 |
| 01-30 17:01 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.89 | $245.86 |
| 01-25 15:03 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.75 | $57.55 |
| 01-24 19:31 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.90 |
| 01-24 17:49 | Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.895 | $253.12 |