0x82aae7a19cbb9c7750a7b9503f92428bbf0ab7d1
0x82aae7a19cbb9c7750a7b9503f92428bbf0ab7d1
- Realised P&L
- $-6.82
- Volume
- $315.71
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $6.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.974 | $3.61 | +$2.61 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.935 | $2.86 | +$1.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$4.60at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.35at 0.379Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during remarks in New York?
- +$2.49at 0.452Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 12:16 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.4089999624 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 04:10 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 19:02 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:33 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:32 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 18:25 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 10:13 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:44 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 03:40 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 08:36 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 14:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 02:52 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4599999034 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 06:47 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 21:58 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 12:47 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |