ox825C9a38d7033Fc2f9d82432d3A1742C38EAdfa0
0x825c9a38d7033fc2f9d82432d3a1742c38eadfa0
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $105.8k
- Markets traded
- 158
- Open portfolio
- $442.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded158
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$278.05at 0.048Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- +$170.05at 0.190Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$74.83at 0.035Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- +$30.80at 0.105Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- +$28.04at 0.040Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 22:22 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.04 |
| 09-17 21:59 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.84 |
| 09-17 21:31 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BUY | 0.0599999983 | $1.43 |
| 09-17 11:00 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026? | BUY | 0.947999997 | $10.23 |
| 09-16 18:38 | Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999877 | $2.08 |
| 09-16 16:53 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $20.23 |
| 09-16 16:30 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026? | SELL | 0.906 | $0.63 |
| 09-16 16:12 | Will Warsh say "Good Day" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.1399999987 | $2.08 |
| 09-16 14:24 | Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun in September 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999928 | $1.05 |
| 09-16 07:36 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026? | BUY | 0.9339999985 | $3.65 |
| 09-16 03:23 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.9429999957 | $9.23 |
| 09-15 22:35 | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.10 |
| 09-15 22:35 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999792 | $1.72 |
| 09-15 21:55 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.0479999993 | $1.10 |
| 09-15 21:00 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.208061835 | $21.47 |