0x823fdce2af9e616620d4d2701d7de1d94558e772
0x823fdce2af9e616620d4d2701d7de1d94558e772
- Realised P&L
- $-19.93
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 121
- Open portfolio
- $7.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded121
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.755 | $1.89 | +$0.89 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.665 | $1.58 | +$0.58 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.745 | 0.966 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.215 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.505 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.505 | 0.502 | $0.99 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.21at 0.172Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
- +$2.14at 0.337Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on August 27?
- +$1.69at 0.391Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20?
- +$1.53at 0.412Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
- +$1.37at 0.579Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 15:08 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET | SELL | 0.5 | $1.04 |
| 10-05 15:05 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 15:01 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 14:57 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET | SELL | 0.62 | $1.48 |
| 10-05 14:55 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 14:52 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET | SELL | 0.73 | $1.82 |
| 10-05 14:50 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 15:37 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.551 | $0.93 |
| 09-23 16:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | SELL | 0.59 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 16:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 16:18 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5939998883 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 16:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | SELL | 0.76 | $1.35 |
| 09-22 16:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | SELL | 0.29 | $0.80 |
| 09-22 16:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 16:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |