pedro4prez
0x823ce4f5754bce96d4f19aad58e6d643b9ab5046
- Realised P&L
- $247.00
- Volume
- $176.7k
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $394.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.925 | $231.25 | −$3.75 |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.013 | $135.00 | −$319.99 |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.570 | $28.50 | −$13.50 |
| Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Parma win the 2025–26 Serie A league? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.85 |
| Will Udinese win the 2025–26 Serie A league? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.66 |
| Will Cagliari win the 2025–26 Serie A league? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.97 |
| Will Verona win the 2025–26 Serie A league? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.26 |
| Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Pisa win the 2025–26 Serie A league? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$478.11at 0.665Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions?
- +$465.87at 0.504Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$150.00at 0.250Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at his press conference?
- +$138.92at 0.820Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during address to UN General Assembly on September 23?
- +$132.00at 0.410$BTC dips below $50k before October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 08:39 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $235.00 |
| 06-12 20:36 | Amouranth divorced by June 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $96.00 |
| 05-26 18:06 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $42.00 |
| 05-15 12:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 05-15 12:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 03-24 03:15 | Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $48.90 |
| 03-24 03:13 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $270.16 |
| 03-15 10:14 | Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $99.70 |
| 01-17 03:06 | Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $498.50 |
| 12-26 15:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.995 | $497.50 |
| 12-01 02:48 | Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $122.75 |
| 11-28 12:59 | Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the December meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 11-28 12:56 | Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | BUY | 0.63 | $126.00 |
| 11-28 12:54 | Will Parma win the 2025–26 Serie A league? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.85 |
| 11-28 12:54 | Will Udinese win the 2025–26 Serie A league? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.66 |