srfc
0x82258c7559007734dad7eef70f55f9f4c1301367
- Realised P&L
- $-11.30
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $0.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.08at 0.580Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?
- +$3.72at 0.518Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
- +$2.50at 0.220Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
- +$2.28at 0.569Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
- +$1.73at 0.830Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 11:01 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 14:45 | Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.00 |
| 06-27 13:27 | Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 05-30 15:02 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2089999998 | $1.00 |
| 04-25 12:22 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY | 0.5699994984 | $1.00 |
| 03-15 06:33 | Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |
| 03-10 07:23 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? | SELL | 0.74 | $2.55 |
| 03-10 07:23 | Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.77 | $3.50 |
| 03-08 10:52 | Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 03-06 16:08 | UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.4099998237 | $1.00 |
| 03-05 08:04 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | BUY | 0.3859998487 | $1.00 |
| 03-04 12:06 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.135 | $4.49 |
| 03-03 14:51 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.0222222222 | $1.00 |
| 03-03 14:48 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? | SELL | 0.961 | $3.43 |
| 02-26 12:45 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |