creators1
0x81fdb0c0bf568e7feb33fc4ca96bfc66f79a57dd
- Realised P&L
- $-50.68
- Volume
- $106.1k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $151.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.988 | 0.992 | $49.58 | +$0.17 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.984 | $49.17 | +$1.68 |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.817 | 0.659 | $26.36 | −$6.32 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.525 | $26.25 | −$8.25 |
| Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.67 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.75at 0.844Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?
- +$16.90at 0.870No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$11.21at 0.898Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?
- +$11.03at 0.890Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
- +$10.21at 0.927Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 12:09 | Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $49.40 |
| 10-09 12:09 | Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.785 | $15.70 |
| 10-09 12:08 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.35 | $52.50 |
| 09-15 14:21 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 09-15 14:20 | Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.849 | $16.98 |
| 09-15 14:20 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.69 | $34.50 |
| 09-15 14:19 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.974 | $97.40 |
| 08-01 02:38 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.56 | $84.00 |
| 08-01 02:36 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.965 | $96.50 |
| 06-11 08:34 | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | BUY | 0.84 | $176.40 |
| 06-11 08:33 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? | SELL | 0.998 | $143.71 |
| 06-11 08:33 | Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.001 | $5.17 |
| 06-11 08:33 | Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.003 | $21.38 |
| 05-19 10:56 | Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.006 | $42.76 |
| 05-05 11:19 | Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.003 | $17.09 |