0x81f949c1dbb5a24a3b37bb51710167e11338f209
0x81f949c1dbb5a24a3b37bb51710167e11338f209
- Realised P&L
- $-2.90
- Volume
- $308.51
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $8.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.385 | $1.60 | +$0.60 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.750 | $1.42 | +$0.41 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? · No | 0.750 | 0.993 | $1.32 | +$0.32 |
| Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.655 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.300 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.495 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $220 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.245 | $0.38 | −$0.62 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.085 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$3.34at 0.382Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$2.40at 0.460Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
- +$2.39at 0.462Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$2.35at 0.460US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 20:17 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 00:06 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 15:29 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 06:49 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $220 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 22:44 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $182 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 14:38 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 06:27 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 22:13 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 13:22 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 05:21 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 21:00 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in September? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 10:44 | Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 02:37 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 06:35 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 15:53 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |