0x81f020887117e5562075da44399f0b691c228b09
0x81f020887117e5562075da44399f0b691c228b09
- Realised P&L
- $-676.10
- Volume
- $79.4k
- Markets traded
- 2,292
- Open portfolio
- $8.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,292
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.987 | $2.63 | +$0.66 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.823 | $2.13 | +$0.16 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.702 | 0.693 | $1.93 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.754 | 0.739 | $1.93 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$135.20at 0.378Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
- +$113.12at 0.467Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
- +$109.43at 0.308Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
- +$101.81at 0.504Bitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
- +$78.43at 0.379Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 08:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | SELL | 0.43 | $1.94 |
| 10-08 08:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | SELL | 0.6 | $2.71 |
| 10-08 08:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | BUY | 0.3699999601 | $3.34 |
| 10-08 08:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | SELL | 0.91 | $7.28 |
| 10-08 08:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.42 | $3.36 |
| 10-08 07:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET | SELL | 0.02 | $0.30 |
| 10-08 07:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET | BUY | 0.2199999934 | $3.31 |
| 10-08 07:53 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $2.67 |
| 10-08 07:53 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $2.71 |
| 10-08 07:45 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7019999477 | $1.96 |
| 10-08 07:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET | BUY | 0.3599999914 | $3.34 |
| 10-08 07:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET | BUY | 0.3499999895 | $3.33 |
| 10-08 07:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET | BUY | 0.324310337 | $2.85 |
| 10-08 07:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET | BUY | 0.3099999793 | $2.85 |
| 10-08 06:53 | Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 7? | BUY | 0.02 | $0.10 |