Sappa
0x81e08b94b6cc7a08593658ad9016f307cdd14fce
- Realised P&L
- $-117.89
- Volume
- $14.6k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $123.61
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)7.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.116 | $61.34 | +$38.51 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.094 | 0.165 | $16.45 | +$7.05 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.225 | $15.47 | +$3.78 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.145 | $14.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.026 | $11.68 | +$0.96 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.002 | $1.88 | −$8.13 |
| Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.003 | $1.52 | −$2.13 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.046 | $0.65 | −$0.48 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.038 | $0.12 | −$0.00 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? · No | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$149.92at 0.063Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$78.00at 0.220US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
- +$28.75at 0.425Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$-1.25at 0.512Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
- +$-2.73at 0.130Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 08:37 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |
| 05-29 07:33 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.052 | $10.40 |
| 05-29 07:32 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.038 | $4.94 |
| 05-29 07:29 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.018 | $9.36 |
| 05-20 09:21 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 05-17 21:00 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | BUY | 0.033 | $4.95 |
| 05-16 17:36 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.95 |
| 04-29 21:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.063 | $1.70 |
| 04-10 13:48 | Will Mona Juul be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.002 | $5.69 |
| 01-24 16:05 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.023861616 | $10.72 |
| 01-24 16:00 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 08-16 21:19 | UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev | BUY | 0.32 | $32.00 |
| 05-20 17:23 | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |
| 05-14 12:09 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? | BUY | 0.139 | $19.37 |
| 04-24 17:58 | No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.09 | $16.33 |