Armiger
0x81d3bb65f050992270427e59ac15a003a2a2c300
- Realised P&L
- $12.63
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $478.18
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.06at 0.310Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
- +$6.57at 0.670Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.00at 0.250Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?
- +$2.70at 0.270Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$1.33at 0.430Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:08 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.2829980797 | $93.00 |
| 11-01 19:06 | Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999832 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 19:05 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $95.00 |
| 10-03 20:29 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1080804897 | $10.00 |
| 10-03 20:29 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0359999997 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 04:09 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.078848 | $30.80 |
| 09-03 04:09 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $30.80 |
| 05-14 08:13 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 05-14 08:12 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $1.02 |
| 04-24 08:09 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.055 | $0.73 |
| 04-22 08:11 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999947 | $20.00 |
| 04-22 08:10 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $22.12 |
| 04-19 10:48 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 04-19 10:43 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $38.00 |
| 04-19 10:42 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.59 | $38.06 |