PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Armiger

0x81d3bb65f050992270427e59ac15a003a2a2c300

Realised P&L
$12.63
Volume
$1.7k
Markets traded
20
Open portfolio
$478.18

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded20
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration57.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample7 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration73.8% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No0.2610.925$352.85+$253.41
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30, 2027? · No0.2830.335$110.09+$17.09
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · No0.4300.905$9.58+$5.03
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1080.045$4.16−$5.84
Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1400.155$1.11+$0.11
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1800.046$0.26−$0.74
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2000.026$0.13−$0.87
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.0360.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? · No0.0790.000$0.00−$30.80
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? · Yes0.0670.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.3000.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 19:08Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30, 2027?BUY0.2829980797$93.00
11-01 19:06Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1399999832$1.00
11-01 19:05Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?SELL0.95$95.00
10-03 20:29Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1080804897$10.00
10-03 20:29Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?BUY0.0359999997$1.00
09-03 04:09Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.078848$30.80
09-03 04:09Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?SELL0.77$30.80
05-14 08:13Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?BUY0.1399998824$1.00
05-14 08:12Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?SELL0.51$1.02
04-24 08:09Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?SELL0.055$0.73
04-22 08:11Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.4099999947$20.00
04-22 08:10Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?SELL0.89$22.12
04-19 10:48Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2$1.00
04-19 10:43Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.4$38.00
04-19 10:42Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?SELL0.59$38.06