PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

💰💰

0x81962d4b60e570db68de998ae77a35d07822ab69

Realised P&L
$9.1k
Volume
$499.4k
Markets traded
606
Open portfolio
$4.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded606
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration50.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration26.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? · Yes0.7960.785$1.2k−$17.61
US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.0940.315$966.61+$677.54
Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31? · Yes0.7740.984$369.94+$78.82
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%? · Yes0.9290.965$346.82+$12.57
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.6600.705$267.05+$17.05
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? · Yes0.2950.999$221.41+$155.99
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.2600.255$204.00−$4.00
Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 6% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? · No0.8900.988$197.50+$19.50
US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes0.1900.205$161.75+$11.84
US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026? · Yes0.1320.365$161.33+$103.08
Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? · Yes0.7480.962$154.80+$34.30
Will the New Economic Party / The Reservists be in the next Israeli government? · No0.8660.996$131.41+$17.10
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? · Yes0.0900.210$80.85+$46.20
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? · Yes0.0700.165$24.64+$14.19
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1700.175$21.88+$0.63

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 22:19Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.26$208.00
11-01 20:14US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?BUY0.4991230288$103.82
11-01 19:03Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?SELL0.72$199.44
11-01 11:22US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?BUY0.09275$22.26
11-01 10:56US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?BUY0.063000516$25.64
11-01 09:57US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31, 2026?BUY0.043558773$14.20
11-01 06:45US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026?BUY0.1317972851$58.25
11-01 02:04U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?SELL0.0068770677$2.74
10-31 23:57U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?SELL0.5102596685$184.71
10-31 23:47U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?BUY0.69$3.45
10-31 23:47U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?BUY0.6891596639$246.03
10-31 23:46U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?SELL0.33992675$135.97
10-31 23:10US strike on Colombia by December 31?BUY0.19$149.91
10-31 22:36U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?BUY0.4775$191.00
10-31 10:19Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?BUY0.8$4.00