10KWarrior
0x818816a0ef909fddd129a022d27b1e2979380667
- Realised P&L
- $-7.3k
- Volume
- $1.83M
- Markets traded
- 646
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded646
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.0kat 0.010S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9?
- +$2.7kat 0.030S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23?
- +$1.5kat 0.129Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$864.36at 0.018Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$839.52at 0.143Khamenei seen in public by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 20:40 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.58 | $2.90 |
| 09-02 14:27 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.45 | $225.00 |
| 08-31 05:30 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.49 | $343.00 |
| 08-28 22:03 | Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.002 | $100.00 |
| 08-28 08:05 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7 | $621.59 |
| 08-27 13:09 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 27? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.01 |
| 08-16 04:09 | UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2099999968 | $50.00 |
| 08-16 03:54 | UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2699999983 | $100.00 |
| 08-14 13:30 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 14? | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 08-11 19:30 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 11? | SELL | 0.006 | $6.00 |
| 08-09 02:43 | Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $38.00 |
| 08-09 02:30 | Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $69.35 |
| 08-09 02:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET | SELL | 0.5710542234 | $211.47 |
| 08-09 02:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET | BUY | 0.2697683085 | $99.90 |
| 08-05 19:23 | Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.931 | $122.79 |