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Traders

10KWarrior

0x818816a0ef909fddd129a022d27b1e2979380667

Realised P&L
$-7.3k
Volume
$1.83M
Markets traded
646
Open portfolio
$1.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded646
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration34.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration54.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.0750.262$784.50+$559.50
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0820.115$232.60+$66.20
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · No0.0540.024$187.44$244.79
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6120.125$79.31$309.07
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.8160.175$46.88$171.80
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? · No0.0310.053$42.04+$17.38
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0020.001$25.00$74.96
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.0180.004$16.00$56.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4500.055$11.00$79.00
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes0.1400.018$9.25$60.75
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? · No0.7530.980$6.96+$1.61
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0080.009$5.02+$0.30
Will Rob Howard win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election? · Yes0.4140.517$5.01+$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-03 20:40Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.58$2.90
09-02 14:27Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.45$225.00
08-31 05:30Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.49$343.00
08-28 22:03Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.002$100.00
08-28 08:05Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.7$621.59
08-27 13:09S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 27?BUY0.003$0.01
08-16 04:09UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)BUY0.2099999968$50.00
08-16 03:54UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)BUY0.2699999983$100.00
08-14 13:30S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 14?BUY0.01$5.00
08-11 19:30SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 11?SELL0.006$6.00
08-09 02:43Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?SELL0.95$38.00
08-09 02:30Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?BUY0.95$69.35
08-09 02:29Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ETSELL0.5710542234$211.47
08-09 02:28Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ETBUY0.2697683085$99.90
08-05 19:23Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?BUY0.931$122.79
Trader 10KWarrior · PolyBot Pro