0x817a6e8ab6e58523e48e84b0312fcd16f692f4db
- Realised P&L
- $-403.48
- Volume
- $17.2k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $591.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.274 | 0.255 | $304.60 | −$23.29 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.125 | $286.46 | −$63.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$74.52at 0.770Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
- +$70.24at 0.740Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$68.85at 0.784Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in July 2026?
- +$55.22at 0.880Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
- +$48.68at 0.799Nothing Ever Happens: July
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 08:48 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999983 | $77.89 |
| 08-26 08:46 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $100.00 |
| 08-25 08:38 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999995 | $250.00 |
| 08-25 08:38 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999995 | $250.00 |
| 08-24 12:39 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $0.16 |
| 08-24 12:39 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.10 |
| 08-18 15:25 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1292249375 | $135.00 |
| 08-18 15:24 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $135.39 |
| 08-18 15:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $136.91 |
| 08-18 11:28 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999986 | $100.00 |
| 08-18 11:27 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.967 | $225.63 |
| 08-17 11:50 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.8571214499 | $200.00 |
| 08-13 14:57 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9146567877 | $194.00 |
| 08-13 14:38 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7199999968 | $197.23 |
| 08-13 14:31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.981 | $17.05 |