0x81583B7fB99f6EaBeFe09F883b8D3a0014D9682B-1768651666368
0x81583b7fb99f6eabefe09f883b8d3a0014d9682b
- Realised P&L
- $106.33
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $1.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%? · Yes | 0.397 | 0.034 | $1.29 | −$13.71 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.040 | $0.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.017 | $0.07 | −$0.93 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.594 | 0.028 | $0.05 | −$0.95 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No | 0.679 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.96at 0.174Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- +$35.51at 0.300Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
- +$25.91at 0.210Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$25.55at 0.273Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
- +$15.74at 0.444Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 11:16 | UK Recession in 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.80 |
| 10-04 11:16 | Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? | SELL | 0.909 | $31.02 |
| 10-04 11:15 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? | SELL | 0.972004914 | $35.60 |
| 10-04 11:15 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.36 | $4.00 |
| 10-04 11:15 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $4.44 |
| 10-04 11:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.8 | $45.96 |
| 05-26 14:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 05-26 13:54 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.976 | $13.94 |
| 05-19 12:41 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 11:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |
| 05-15 14:50 | Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | SELL | 0.97 | $25.52 |
| 05-15 14:48 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.449999955 | $5.00 |
| 05-15 09:34 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.58 | $41.42 |
| 05-04 21:35 | Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? | BUY | 0.4319999537 | $5.00 |
| 05-04 21:25 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? | BUY | 0.219750792 | $5.00 |