0x814eEFb344D5a041b13b7509c7d0595b802577c0-1778348684619
0x814eefb344d5a041b13b7509c7d0595b802577c0
- Realised P&L
- $-0.82
- Volume
- $200.25
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $6.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.492 | 0.185 | $1.13 | −$1.87 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.175 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.575 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.035 | $0.97 | −$1.03 |
| Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.220 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.180 | $0.62 | −$0.38 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.065 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.033 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.130 | $0.30 | −$0.70 |
| Trump pays Jan 6 rioter? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.55at 0.180Trump kiss by May 31?
- +$1.44at 0.410Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?
- +$0.96at 0.510Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?
- +$0.75at 0.520Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?
- +$0.33at 0.800Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 15:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $1.15 |
| 06-12 03:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.44 | $1.29 |
| 06-10 17:40 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 06-06 18:47 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0539999504 | $1.00 |
| 06-05 18:48 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 06-05 18:44 | Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? | SELL | 0.89 | $1.26 |
| 06-05 18:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:23 | Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:22 | Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:12 | Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:11 | Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL | 0.961 | $1.15 |
| 06-04 19:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.33999983 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |