0x814eEFb344D5a041b13b7509c7d0595b802577c0-1778348684619
0x814eefb344d5a041b13b7509c7d0595b802577c0
- Realised P&L
- $4.92
- Volume
- $199.04
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $4.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.175 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.235 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.492 | 0.125 | $0.76 | −$2.24 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.021 | $0.56 | −$1.44 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.155 | $0.35 | −$0.65 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.045 | $0.35 | −$0.65 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.024 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
| Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.090 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
| Trump pays Jan 6 rioter? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.52at 0.186Trump kiss by May 31?
- +$1.41at 0.422Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?
- +$0.94at 0.520Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?
- +$0.72at 0.532Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?
- +$0.67at 0.602Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 15:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $1.15 |
| 06-12 03:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.44 | $1.29 |
| 06-10 17:40 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 06-06 18:47 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0539999504 | $1.00 |
| 06-05 18:48 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 06-05 18:44 | Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? | SELL | 0.89 | $1.26 |
| 06-05 18:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:23 | Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:22 | Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:12 | Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:11 | Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL | 0.961 | $1.15 |
| 06-04 19:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.33999983 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 19:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |