Trumppicker
0x80324cd0c823e018bf427c7365724656f1057c6c
- Realised P&L
- $549.23
- Volume
- $269.9k
- Markets traded
- 766
- Open portfolio
- $63.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded766
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$381.26at 0.178US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$325.42at 0.205US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
- +$260.66at 0.220Will King Charles say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the joint meeting of Congress?
- +$227.58at 0.208Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
- +$226.19at 0.053Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 12:40 | Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | BUY | 0.5799999988 | $50.00 |
| 08-11 00:55 | Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | BUY | 0.4493159115 | $40.00 |
| 08-10 17:09 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $30.00 |
| 08-10 11:54 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.3509230201 | $38.02 |
| 08-09 18:25 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999907 | $15.00 |
| 08-09 11:56 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $14.99 |
| 08-08 15:17 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $48.23 |
| 08-08 12:11 | Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $24.31 |
| 08-08 12:01 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999942 | $30.00 |
| 07-31 21:28 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.3299999939 | $35.00 |
| 07-31 13:50 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.5399999935 | $25.00 |
| 07-31 13:50 | Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6099999927 | $20.00 |
| 07-31 13:49 | Will Trump say "Socialist" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.449999988 | $15.00 |
| 07-31 13:48 | Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6999999972 | $25.00 |
| 07-29 00:19 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.2409999934 | $20.00 |