0x7f45a04dA31104Fc6952BBd51476CD6870B04eA1-1734251662029
0x7f45a04da31104fc6952bbd51476cd6870b04ea1
- Realised P&L
- $-37.83
- Volume
- $6.8k
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $50.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 20? · No | 0.996 | 0.995 | $28.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $21.85 | +$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.22at 0.991Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February?
- +$0.16at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 6?
- +$0.15at 0.994Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?
- +$0.14at 0.994Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24?
- +$0.14at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 14:13 | Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.9956566368 | $29.00 |
| 10-18 03:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 18? | BUY | 0.9979999627 | $22.00 |
| 10-18 00:06 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $21.80 |
| 10-11 02:56 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $23.00 |
| 10-08 22:55 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 9? | BUY | 0.9968641384 | $24.10 |
| 10-03 20:24 | Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.00 |
| 10-03 17:24 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.90 |
| 09-30 16:09 | Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999998 | $12.00 |
| 09-26 17:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.997 | $26.00 |
| 09-25 20:30 | Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.9969999993 | $21.60 |
| 09-24 00:48 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.00 |
| 09-22 06:38 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $20.70 |
| 09-20 07:49 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.9959999656 | $18.20 |
| 09-17 11:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 18? | BUY | 0.9929999571 | $18.00 |
| 09-13 19:29 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $16.30 |