0x7f306075730792d46f0c1f3da7b90a4bdcdf706f
- Realised P&L
- $-305.74
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $12.59
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration94.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.055 | $12.59 | −$19.45 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? · Yes | 0.173 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · No | 0.986 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.00 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.659 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$295.00 |
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.146 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$319.74at 0.190US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$10.55at 0.884Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?
- +$9.23at 0.871Will Putin visit China by May 31?
- +$-0.68at 0.820US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
- +$-1.02at 0.431Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 20:00 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.2099999765 | $6.00 |
| 07-19 19:59 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.4 | $6.96 |
| 07-19 19:59 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4024999737 | $7.00 |
| 05-24 05:51 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BUY | 0.1729999935 | $20.00 |
| 05-24 05:50 | Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $32.04 |
| 05-24 05:49 | Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.1376836339 | $60.32 |
| 05-19 13:44 | Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.145890916 | $110.00 |
| 05-19 13:40 | Will Putin visit China by May 31? | SELL | 0.9912597142 | $113.78 |
| 05-12 11:54 | Will Putin visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.8711858633 | $100.00 |
| 03-05 13:50 | Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? | SELL | 0.977 | $110.55 |
| 03-03 16:13 | Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.6592049051 | $295.00 |
| 03-02 23:34 | Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.8837369555 | $100.00 |
| 02-28 02:53 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.9859999999 | $55.00 |
| 02-28 02:51 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $55.36 |
| 02-28 02:50 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999997 | $56.04 |