Alpheo
0x7eaa1446a6d9b5f83356f7cdeb4eae42bac2fd24
- Realised P&L
- $9.4k
- Volume
- $579.7k
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $88.8k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · No | 0.925 | 0.998 | $39.9k | +$2.9k |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30? · No | 0.880 | 0.930 | $18.6k | +$1.0k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · No | 0.940 | 0.945 | $14.3k | +$77.24 |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.997 | $14.2k | +$2.1k |
| Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by October 31? · No | 0.961 | 0.992 | $1.7k | +$53.07 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 240M by October 30, 2026? · No | 0.955 | 0.976 | $91.50 | +$1.97 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? · No | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$700.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.0kat 0.866Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$1.3kat 0.863Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.777Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
- +$1.1kat 0.983Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
- +$1.0kat 0.950Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 05:56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $5.0k |
| 10-14 06:16 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.1k |
| 10-12 05:50 | Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by October 31? | BUY | 0.975 | $58.50 |
| 10-09 06:43 | Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by October 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.6k |
| 10-08 06:02 | Houthis enter Aden by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.5k |
| 10-05 06:44 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $3.2k |
| 09-29 06:19 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $10.0k |
| 09-24 07:08 | Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | BUY | 0.71 | $912.52 |
| 09-20 06:55 | Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7970263206 | $5.0k |
| 09-20 06:54 | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9497558957 | $3.2k |
| 09-14 06:28 | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $707.75 |
| 09-13 09:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET | BUY | 0.9081567415 | $1000.00 |
| 09-13 09:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET | BUY | 0.8668130964 | $1.0k |
| 09-13 08:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | BUY | 0.9033625904 | $1000.00 |
| 09-13 08:42 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.00133184 | $6.66 |