0x7dcf5a7420561b7c9d50ba89a01878d5abf245e8
0x7dcf5a7420561b7c9d50ba89a01878d5abf245e8
- Realised P&L
- $-14.45
- Volume
- $93.97
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $3.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-15.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.760 | 0.985 | $2.00 | +$0.46 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $190 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.330 | $0.78 | −$0.62 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.160 | $0.76 | −$1.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.69at 0.540US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$1.65at 0.550Will Trump say "Grocery" or "Dairy" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.56at 0.562Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$1.36at 0.602Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.61at 0.760Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 11:07 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $190 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998399 | $1.40 |
| 08-19 05:49 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999446 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 05:13 | Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 21:04 | US strike on Colombia by December 31? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 12:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 04:32 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $487.50 Week of August 10 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 04:31 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 20:30 | Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 12:18 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 07-28 13:43 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-28 01:52 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $840 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-27 15:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5399999727 | $1.98 |
| 07-27 03:06 | Will Trump say "Grocery" or "Dairy" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.5399999727 | $1.98 |
| 07-26 15:04 | Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.29 |
| 07-26 02:57 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? | BUY | 0.5899999941 | $2.01 |