Tomson456
0x7d9f9cf303066a0b0acd33c122817770ad83f01b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $56.6k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $6.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.173 | 0.175 | $3.5k | +$44.87 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? · Yes | 0.249 | 0.275 | $1.7k | +$158.95 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.336 | 0.135 | $1.4k | −$2.1k |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.159 | 0.021 | $25.73 | −$174.27 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.029 | $11.03 | −$87.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$185.53at 0.420Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
- +$66.27at 0.232Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
- +$46.51at 0.298Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
- +$39.88at 0.200Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
- +$33.70at 0.747Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 00:39 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $497.00 |
| 10-05 00:38 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? | BUY | 0.2486282926 | $1.5k |
| 08-08 22:54 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1684992574 | $2.0k |
| 08-04 17:30 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1899999999 | $996.00 |
| 05-25 21:04 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.3039020841 | $997.00 |
| 05-13 20:00 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.3544767118 | $2.0k |
| 04-20 23:18 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY | 0.0699999998 | $298.92 |
| 04-19 00:23 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY | 0.2063937027 | $498.20 |
| 04-09 19:37 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY | 0.3130434133 | $498.19 |
| 04-01 10:21 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.3379694962 | $498.19 |
| 03-21 12:18 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.3599999994 | $298.92 |
| 03-18 00:51 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.2599999984 | $98.92 |
| 03-18 00:46 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1593625498 | $200.00 |
| 03-13 01:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.2396394773 | $199.28 |
| 02-20 15:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET | BUY | 0.6199999994 | $61.64 |