0x7D61EB5104D8d694AD186834106E38d8c5BEb8Bc-1761749060414
0x7d61eb5104d8d694ad186834106e38d8c5beb8bc
- Realised P&L
- $-132.08
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $9.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.970 | 0.973 | $5.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Democrats win the Ohio and Texas Senate seats? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.685 | $4.76 | −$0.24 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 14? · No | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) · KT Rolster | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$124.80 |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.10 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? · No | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 25? · No | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 15? · No | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.79at 0.528Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$0.85at 0.780Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers
- +$0.32at 0.987Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$0.29at 0.946Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?
- +$0.20at 0.830Raiders vs. Broncos
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 03:59 | Will Democrats win the Ohio and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.7199999654 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 03:59 | Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers | BUY | 0.7799999688 | $3.00 |
| 10-01 03:03 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9699998448 | $5.00 |
| 03-22 13:56 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.995 | $10.00 |
| 03-22 13:55 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | BUY | 0.9909999332 | $5.00 |
| 03-15 14:38 | Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.5279999852 | $2.00 |
| 03-02 14:23 | Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more? | BUY | 0.9459999958 | $5.00 |
| 02-26 07:01 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.9409999668 | $1.50 |
| 02-15 11:18 | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | BUY | 0.9759997326 | $1.46 |
| 01-14 13:48 | Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? | BUY | 0.8799995072 | $1.00 |
| 12-18 10:17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 18? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.46 |
| 12-05 00:15 | Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | BUY | 0.0070000001 | $1.00 |
| 11-25 10:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 25? | BUY | 0.0118318927 | $1.00 |
| 11-18 11:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18? | BUY | 0.0714214752 | $6.00 |
| 11-15 09:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 15? | BUY | 0.009 | $1.00 |